My Poker Stats (So Far So Good) & Some Really Great Poker Articles.

If you read the four articles I've linked this week, I can almost guarantee you'll learn something that will make you a more profitable player.

I’ve been playing four Party Poker $11 SNGs a night, two-tabling them, and starting two more when both are completed. On the weekends, I’m playing quite a few more. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve played about 150 with my in the money (ITM) at 45% and return on investment (ROI) at around 19%. I’ve kind of decided, I’m playing too tight when it gets close to the bubble, which is why I think my ROI isn’t higher at that ITM%. Not that I’m at all complaining about those stats, realizing of course that it’s far too small a sample size to be at all significant.

At any rate, here are a few really, really good articles of interest I’ve run across over the past week:

A great article on c-betting by Curtains, one of the best SNG players around.

Avoiding Trouble with AK, another excellent article by Curtains.

A very good, very simple lesson in heads-up play by Raptor.

Theorem of Blind Stealing – A classic by MJ. It had been awhile so I decided it was time for a reread.

Building a Better Sit-N-Go Poker Pushbot

Building a Better Sit-N-Go Poker Pushbot

I’ll probably be berated by some people for making this post. They’ll view it as “tapping the tank” so to speak – educating the fish. However, I think poker players who worry about these things are generally being silly. Most of the fish I know have already read any number of poker books. Many of them also frequent online poker forums. But for some reason it just doesn’t sink in, or they don’t take the time to really study and apply what they read anyway.

In my last article I mentioned pushbotting near the end of a sit-n-go poker tournament. Many hold’em players, both good and bad, follow this approach. Most of them don’t have much rhyme or reason as to how they go about it. They push based on reads. They push based on their gut. Or they use some set of formulas like always push with any two on the button in an unraised pot. So should pushbotting be based on? The answer lies in something called the Independent Chip Model (ICM). The purpose of this article is to simply lay out my plan for learning to be a better pushbot.

First, what is ICM? I’m not a math geek so I won’t go into the mathematical formulas. Essentially ICM uses equity to assign a value to chips in order to determine optimal poker play. However, a number of smarter poker players than I have already described ICM better than I could, so I’ll simply include a few links at the bottom of this page for further reading. If you feel so inclined feel free to read through those links to satisfy yourself that ICM is indeed a valid basis for pushbotting. Personally I don’t need to do that. All the evidence I need is the knowledge that most of the very best sit-n-go players use it.

So how does one learn to be an ICM pushbot? Well, here’s my plan, using some software tools available for purchase on the Internet. By the way, I am not connected with any of them and in absolutely no way compensated for recommending any of these.

The tools are:

- Sit n Go Power Tools (SNGPT)
- Bubble Trainer (BT)
- SitNGo Wizard (SNGWIZ)

SNGPT is a software package that determines the correct play according to ICM, it can be used to analyze actual hands you’ve played in tournaments or to make up hands to analyze. You can change a range of variables such as stack sizes, position, opponent hand ranges, etc to see how they impact your decision to push, call a push, or fold. The software’s author is recognized as an authority on ICM and his reputation for excellent service and updating of the software is excellent.

Once you’ve played with SNGPT awhile, analyzing hands, you can test yourself using Bubble Trainer, which is web-based. Bubble Trainer essentially places you at a short-handed hold’em table and places you in a variety of situations that call for using your ICM skills. It then tells you whether you acted correctly or incorrectly. Again, you can review the hands that you missed in SNGPT, change variables and figure out why the move was incorrect. Read here for exactly how to use SNGPT.

Since the math behind ICM is fairly complex, it isn’t really practical to be doing it at the table. Therefore the goal is for proper pushbot play to become intuitive. This is where using BT comes in. Through pure repetition and analyzing mistakes, you hone your pushbotting until it’s second nature.

The third tool, SNGWIZ, is fairly new. It essentially provides the analytical tools of SNGPT and the ability to quiz yourself like BT in a single package. It has a nicer interface and offers some features that SNGPT does not. For instance, it handles opened pots with multiple limpers or raisers and overcalls or three-way showdowns, which SNGPT does not.

Price comparison: SNGPT is $79 to buy the software. Bubble Trainer is $24.99 PER MONTH. SNGWIZ is $99 to buy the software. Yes, they’re expensive and only useful to someone who will take the time to learn them and use them.

So SNGWIZ really looks like a much better deal. The biggest knock on SNGWIZ is that it’s untested. It was only released last month and early versions were buggy. It may or may not be fixed. Also, the author of SNGPT is well-known and well-respected, and has built up a very loyal following, whereas the SNGWIZ author is simply not well-known yet. I’ll let you make your own decision as to which makes more sense for you. I’ve bought SNGPT and SNGWIZ, and used BT’s trial but I don’t have a clear preference yet myself.

So those are the tools available. Now on to the plan!

First, this is how SNGPT’s author recommends using his tool. This is essentially how I intend to go about using either SNGPT or SNGWIZ. He also has some very well-written tutorials included with the SNGPT software that you don’t get with SNGWIZ, as well as future tutorials he’s already promised.

So my plan for using these tools is very simple.

Step 1 – Spend a few days replaying old tournament histories in either SNGPT or SNGWIZ to get a feel for places I’ve been pushbotting poorly (I’ve done this step).

Step 2 – Spend a few days playing with SNGWIZ’s quiz function or BT, applying what I’m hopefully learning. Then replaying the missed hands in SNGPT or SNGWIZ.

Step 3 – Prior to each session, I’ll spend 30 minutes with either Bubble Trainer or SNGWIZ’s quiz function to warm up my skills.

Step 4 – Following each session, I’ll replay key hands in SNGPT or SNGWIZ to compare my actions to optimal ones.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat steps 3 & 4. There. That’s the easy part!

There’s one crucial skill that I haven’t touched on, which is easily the most difficult to master. A key variable when using ICM to determine the optimal play is the range of hands that your opponent will push with or call with. In order to get a sense for this, you have to pay attention throughout the tournament. Taking player notes is also helpful. You’ll have to get a sense for what kind of player he is. Is he a loose caller? Is he hyper aggro? Will he raise with any two cards? Will he call and all-in with only the top 5% of hands? In order to use pushbotting effectively it is crucial that you get a sense of this and effectively assign ranges of hands.

Now there are a couple of tools that can help you with it during a game. I’d note that they may be of very limited use, and should certainly not be relied on exclusively. They are:

- Pokertracker (PT)
- PokerAces Heads Up Display (PAHUD)

PT is a software tool that records data from the games you play or observe using hand histories that your poker room places on your hard drive. PokerAces HUD is a PokerTracker add-on that displays statistics that you choose on your table display to help you see what kind of player you’re up against. What you want to do is configure your PokerTracker software to continually import data and update the stats displayed by PokerAces HUD.

A caveat. First, if you’re playing according to the strategy in my last article, your style of play will change throughout the tournament. It’s very possible your opponents’ will as well. So stats recorded early in the tournament may be useless later in the tournament. You can set filters in PokerAces HUD to only use data recorded when a certain range of players is at the table, which can be useful but limits the amount of data being used. The amount of data recorded from a single SNG may not be very useful. If you play against the same opponents frequently, PokerTracker will record more and more data on your opponents, which hopefully makes PokerAces HUD more useful in assigning a range of hands. The statistics I have PokerAces HUD set to display are: Voluntarily put money in pot, Preflop raise %, Attempted to steal %, Called preflop raise %, Folded small blind to steal %, Folded big blind to steal %, and Aggro Factor.

Other than PokerTracker & PokerAces HUD and using player notes, I don’t know of any tools to help with this. Since it’s a crucial factor in pushbotting decisions, it’s imperative that you practice, practice, practice this skill. Don’t just keep playing and expect it to come. Consciously practice the skill. When it’s late in a tournament continually be thinking, what kind of player is he? What will he push/call with?

Collected ICM Articles:
What is ICM?
What is ICM (#2)?
Links to more basic ICM articles.

Building a Poker Bankroll with Sit-N-Go Tournaments

Building a Poker Bankroll with Sit-N-Go Tournaments

It’s been awhile since I’ve played any sit-n-go poker tournaments, but I had cashed out most of my bankroll and I really do believe SNGs or STTs (Single-Table Tournaments) are one of the easiest ways to build a poker bankroll quickly. Poker players in this forum post think the same thing. So while I’m rebuilding my bankroll, I’ll be playing a lot of these during the week, and playing the multi-table poker tournaments on weekends. This is also partly because SNGs take about an hour to finish. MTTs take several hours making for very late evenings when I get deep in one, which has a serious impact on productivity at my day job.

As I said, it’s been awhile since I’ve played them but I’ve been playing quite a few lately, the Party Poker $11s in particular, and they’re fairly easy for any reasonably disciplined and patient poker player to beat. The strategy is simple:

Early in the tournament, say rounds 1-3, tight is right. Just play ubertight, and by that I mean play nothing out of position except AA, KK, QQ or AK. In late position, play other pocket pairs for set value only if you can limp in. If the flop misses you, fold. Forget suited connectors. Why? Because you don’t want to chase your ships away at this stage, and doubling up with a big hand doesn’t mean much anyway.

In the middle rounds loosen up slightly, but never put your stack in jeopardy without a very good hand. By very good I mean at least two pair.

In the late rounds go pushbot. Anytime your stack falls below 10bb, if you’re going to bet, you should push all-in. By this time the blinds will be significantly higher so unless you’ve gotten lucky and now have a very big stack, you’ll probably be pushing a lot, often with junk. Blind stealing is very important at this stage. Try to do it in position. Pay attention to which stacks you’re pushing against. Big stacks may not mind calling you if they can afford to lose to bust you, and small stacks frequently feel they have nothing to lose by calling with mediocre hands.

Once you’re in the money, play very aggressively. Forget about second place. Play for first and settle for third.

The reason this strategy works are simple. Most of the donks playing SNGs play all wrong. They play way too many hands, trying to double up early. Just stay out of the way. You don't have to double up early, and chances are over half of them will knock each other out trying. Then the survivors suddenly see themselves getting closer to the money and they tighten up. That's when you take advantage.

I’ll probably write up a more complete strategy guide sometime in the future, but this is really all you need to know to be profitable at the Party Poker $11 level. There are some more advanced concepts that will take your pushbot game further, and some tools available to teach yourself those concepts. I’ll probably discuss them in more detail at a later date. However, they’re really not necessary at this level.

There are a lot of good poker players making a lot of money playing these small tournaments exclusively. A good player typically finishes in the money better than 40% of the time in these $11 tournaments and has a return on investment of around 25-30%.

As I said, to win at these takes two things -- discipline and patience. Playing such a small range of hands early in the tourney gets boring. It can be easy to justify playing a suited two-gapper from the small blind when limpers are giving you odds. Don’t do it. Just sit on your chips. It’s easy to chase a draw for one more ½ pot bet. Don’t do it. Pay attention and stay out of trouble (this is a reminder to myself after blowing two SNGs out my a** last night).

For those who haven’t played these before, one thing I’d clarify is that SNGs tend to play unlike any other game. They’re not at all like cash games and they don’t really play like a multi-table poker tournament either. Some people have tried to imply they’re a good way to practice MTT final table skills. They’re not. They don’t play at all like a MTT final table. The reason is simple. When you get to a final table in a multi, you’re usually already in the money, whereas SNGs typically pay only three places.

Poker Tournament Strategy and Just Paying Attention

Tournament Strategy and Just Paying Attention

I played a few poker tournaments over the weekend, and in evaluating my play post-session, I realized something. I’m convinced that some problems that I’ve blamed on a failure to “shift gears” during a poker tournament are actually a deeper problem.

After one hand that I played particularly poorly, I realized that I simply hadn’t planned the hand well. I’ve caught myself doing this at other times, and usually berated myself sufficiently. Then I started thinking about it with respect to poker tournaments I’ve blown in the past that I had blamed on not “shifting gears” as the tournament progressed. In fact, it has nothing to do with tournament strategy or a failure to shift gears. It has to do with a failure to play the individual hands properly.

For instance, one particular thing I’ve had a tendency to do is see a lot of flops early in poker tournaments. I like to look for opportunities to double up early by playing a lot of suited connectors up to two-gappers, unsuited connectors, baby pairs, etc. I’ll even play them out of position frequently. When I have a $2,000 stack and it cost $30, or even $90 to play, why not?

But frequently I get myself in trouble when I haven’t doubled up. Instead my stack has slowly dwindled to $1,500 or so and the blinds have gotten up to $100. The next thing I know, I’ve called one big blind or even one raise too many and I’m short stacked. The problem isn’t that I don’t slow down. The problem is that I shouldn’t have to.

Here’s what I mean. There is NO SUCH THING as “early tournament strategy”. What many players call “strategy” is just laziness. I should be evaluating the playability of each hand individually. It happens that if you do play them individually, then I should probably play most of the hands I’m already playing early, and not play the ones I’m playing when I get into trouble. But if I weren’t taking the lazy approach and viewing it in generalizations like “early tournament strategy” instead of taking the hands individually, I wouldn’t fail to recognize that I shouldn’t be playing them.

In other words, when you play deep stack no-limit hold’em, whether it be early in a poker tournament or in a cash game, you tend to want to see a lot of flops. You have to see flops to make big hands, and you’re usually looking to play big pot hands such as connectors. When you’re short stacked, whether it be in a poker tournament or a side game, you don’t need to play big pot hands. You don’t have enough behind to stack anyone anyway. You look for hands you can take to a showdown. That usually means big cards.

Interestingly, I don’t seem to have this problem when a tournament gets into middle stages. If I’m still around, by the middle stages I’ve generally started paying attention and am playing poker the way I should (although, by then a whole new set of problems crop up). I guess the fix for this is easy enough; just smack myself in the back of the head a few times prior to starting the tournament to make sure I’m awake and paying attention.

I noticed another funny thing while reading a couple of truly bad articles on tournament strategy online this weekend. Both had somewhat lengthy discussions of “gap theory” as discussed in David Sklansky's classic Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Gap theory simply says you need a better hand to call a raise than you need to make the same raise yourself. Although Sklansky first wrote about this idea in a tournament book, it is by no stretch purely a tournament phenomenon. The funny thing was that both of these horrible articles discussed it as a phenomenon that makes tournament poker different from cash games. Ugh.

A little more work on my Poker Plan w/ some good tournament strategy links.

I outlined my reading plan in a recent post. Here are some players’ thoughts with regard to the order in which to read the books I recommended.

I got a little busy at work last week and was putting in some long hours so I opted not to play much in my exhausted state, but I have been doing a lot of reading. I’m still working my way through Sklansky & Miller's No Limit Hold'em Theory & Practice. And I’ve been doing quite a bit of reading in 2+2’s Multi-Table Tournament Forum and Small-Stakes No-Limit Forum.

I’ve also been working on fleshing out my plan for my poker education a bit more. Although I’ve played some larger buy-in online tournaments including $200+15s and $600+15s, it has been awhile since I played tournaments either seriously or consistently. Therefore, in the near term, I’ll be focusing on playing smaller stakes tournaments like the $3-$11 buy-in tournaments at Pokerstars and Party Poker. My immediate goal is to be playing at least one tournament five days a week. Here's a discussion of which online tourneys are best for small stakes players looking to build their bankroll.

I’ve also decided in the near term to focus most of my online reading to MTT strategy posts at the 2+2 Multi-Table Tournament Forum and similar other forums rather than on things like how to play Kjo out of position. My reason for this is that in evaluating my play, I feel like tournament strategy is a big weakness for me. When I don’t get deep in tournaments it tends to be because of something like playing too aggressively at a period of the tournament when I should be playing tighter or vice versa. I’m not getting the inflection points right – not changing gears. That’s just an example, and I’ll still work on the play of individual hands. I’m certainly not saying I’m an expert, but I’m going to try to focus on what I see as my bigger weakness first.

I’ve also been finding myself short-stacked too early in tournaments. This tells me a couple of things I’m probably doing wrong. First, I don’t think I’m playing enough pots early on. When I do play them, I may not be getting out of them quickly enough when I’m on the losing end. I’m also probably calling more often than I should when I’m not committed to the pot. Here are a few good posts on building a stack early in tournaments that I’ve been reading this week.

Survival is not the goal.

Survivors vs. Accumulators.

How chip values change during a tournament.